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Bear Markets, Crypto Winter and Recession Worries: 2022 Q2 Portfolio Update

Time flies when life is happening. It’s beautiful here now that it’s summertime in upstate New York. Between work, vacation, trail running and generally trying to get outside as much as possible I’ve been writing a little less.

It feels like just yesterday I posted my first quarterly update ever for Q1 2022. Upon reflection I realized that I foolishly called it a “FI progress” post without actually stating how the numbers were stacking up against our rough FI number of $2M. Oops. Hope you’ll forgive me.

I decided that the FI journey is a slow one and updates against an FI number are probably better off in an annual wrap up. So, I changed the post name and I’ll worry about FI progress at the end of the year.

2022 Q2 Portfolio Update:

And we’re back with another quarterly update. This month my focus will be on showing you how much money we lost to help you feel better about your own losses. Well, losing money is never the goal but it happens some years none the less. We’re all in this together.

Q2 Total Investment Account (-$73,173) Value Changes:

Here’s an overview of my contributions, as broken down by the retirement tax triangle.

Q2 Account Contribution Summary (+$33,317):

  • Taxable (+$6,465)
  • Tax Free (+$1,825)
  • Tax Deferred (+$25,027)

In Q1 our overall investment accounts were down $73k after $33k in contributions. It’s understandable that some people feel that this feels like lighting dollar bills on fire. I put money in, and less money comes out! This investing stuff is dumb, I quit.

That’s how it goes though. The total stock market ETF VTI peaked at $243/share this year. Now it costs $191/share. At that peak I could have purchased 41 shares for $10,000 but now I’m buying 52 shares for the same $10,000. When it returns to the peak, our 52 shares will be worth $12,600.

The key is that you stay the course and don’t radically change your plan. I know that can be challenging emotionally. That’s why I gave people some ideas to avoid mistakes during a bear market.

Q2 Net Worth (-$54,803) Value Changes:

The crazy housing market continues to make me shake my head. I thought it was crazy that our home value went up 10% in Q1. Well, it did it again in Q2 up another 10% by $19,300 to $225,200.

We live in an area where this is highly unusual. With rising mortgage rates I can see this trend slowing way down and reversing.

Due to the bear stock market I completely stopped overpaying our 3.65% mortgage despite that being the prior plan. Stocks are getting cheaper so I think it’s a prudent tactical move. I ran the numbers on pre-paying my mortgage vs. invest in this article.

Taxable Accounts Value Change (-$27,472):

Here are our contributions to these accounts this quarter.

Q2 Taxable Account Contributions: +$6,465

  • Brokerage – Added $4,360 to the account.
  • iBonds – No added contributions. I still have $8,500 in “space” to buy more this year. However, it takes a lot of money to max our after tax 401k contributions for a future mega backdoor Roth contribution. I’ve been prioritizing buying stock funds in the brokerage account with extra money that I have.
  • Crypto – Bought $2,105 in BTC and ETH. I also sold my GUSD stablecoins and purchased BTC and ETH with that money.

We contributed $6,465 to our accounts and still saw our taxable accounts go down by $27k. The current bear market in both US stocks and crypto. The brokerage account is currently 100% stock so it’s highly volatile.

BTC is where we hold most of our crypto and that dropped 57% in Q2 alone. Yikes! This is why it’s important to be diversified and invest according to what level of risk you can handle.

I can sleep fine at night losing $7k. If that was a 57% drop in 3 months on a $1M portfolio pushing it down to $430,000 that would be terrifying.

The crypto portfolio has dropped so much that even with contributions it’s falling way below my target allocation of 1% of our total portfolio. I’ll keep adding to it slowly to try and get it back to $10-12k by the end of the year.

Tax Free Accounts Value Change (-$24,101):

Q2 Tax Free Account Contributions: +$1,825

  • Cash – No substantial changes. Normal ebb and flow.
  • Roth IRA – No changes. Already maxed for the year.
  • HSA – Added ~$1825 in contributions. Normal quarterly max out.

Our Roth accounts are invested in an 80/20 stock/bond portfolio so those took a good hit. The downside of maxing these out in Q1 is that there’s no ability to DCA into these accounts as they drop in value.

HSA’s dropped substantially on a percentage basis since they’re invested 100% in stock. That’s because they’re our retirement healthcare fund.

Tax Deferred Accounts Value Change (-$21,600):

The tax deferred account balances weren’t down as much in Q2 but unfortunately that was partly because we contributed a LOT more. We put in $25k and the account was still down $21.6k. That’s okay, those dollars will buy even more shares when they get put to work in the Roth at the end of the year.

Q2 Tax Deferred Account Contributions (+$25,027):

  • Mr. MFI 401k – $17,045* in my contributions. $2,857 in company contributions.
  • Mrs. MFI 401k – $5,125 in her contributions.

*Includes after tax contributions for a future mega backdoor Roth contribution.

Financial Topics On My Mind:

Each quarter I like to discuss some topics that are on my mind. They could be based on current financial events. They could be ideas based on thought provoking things that I’ve read. They could changes or ideas that I’m looking at implementing in our own portfolios.

Bear Markets

A bear market represents a 20% or more drop in the value of a market from the peak to the current value. We saw a bear market not long ago during the COVID crash of March 2020 when the S&P dropped 30%+. However, it was so short lived and recovered so quickly that it felt different than this. That along with the fact that at that time we were all more worried about dying than our portfolios.

Well, here we are again in early 2022 and we recently hit bear market territory for the S&P500 index. With a peak around 4800, anything below 3840 would be bear market territory. We hit that in June and at the time of this writing it’s recovered slightly above that but who knows how long that will last for.

What does that mean? Well, it does mean that stocks have started to drop from their sky high valuations to something more reasonable. If you’re far from retirement and still working this is a great opportunity to pick up shares for cheaper.

However, bear markets can be very difficult to deal with mentally. Especially if you haven’t been through one before. If you track your net worth you were flying high at the end of 2021. Our invested assets topped $1.2M and it felt amazing.

Then, a bear market hits and portfolios start dropping. If not for our very high savings rate continuously investing during the drop we’d be down over $200,000 and would have dropped out of the 7 figure club. I don’t care how experienced you are, that still sucks.

What to do? Well, stay the course, of course. If you have an investment plan now is the time to stick to that plan. Keep investing as you have been.

Avoid making drastic changes based on these short term events. Remember, you’re a long term investor and bear markets are typically 1-3 year events. More tips here for how to avoid investing mistakes when markets get crazy.

When markets get volatile your investments can get out of whack so be sure to review them every 6-12 months at a minimum to rebalance. Remember that rebalancing is effectively selling the high priced stuff and buying the low priced stuff.

Tactically, one thing that we changed is to stop overpaying on our mortgage. A while back I decided to pay an extra $500/mo towards our mortgage principle instead of investing that money. The goal being to pay off the mortgage a little faster.

With the market dropping and having a 3.65%, 30 year mortgage with only 7 years left on it with normal payments, we decided to stop the overpayments. Instead, that $500 is being invested in stock indexes in our brokerage account.

Crypto Winter

Brrr, crypto winter is upon us! Crypto values are tanking, stable coins are failing and some crypto companies are going out of business. In other words, shit is getting real in the crypto space after a couple years of euphoria.

I recently wrote about the risks of stablecoins. In there I spoke about counterparty risk as being a large one. One, we’re seeing that play out in multiple places. The stable coin UST lost its peg and its partner coin Luna went to zero.

If that wasn’t enough, Celsius and Voyager stopped allowing customer withdrawals. We found out that they were both loaning out large sums of money to others like 3 Arrows Capital (3AC) that were taking large risks with that money.

They’re halting customer withdrawals due to having “liquidity problems” which has many investors angry and worried. Its likely that they will lose some of their money and in the worst case they could lose it all. This is the problem with crypto companies that are unregulated. You don’t really know what risks they might be taking with your money.

All of that has put cryptocurrency prices into a free fall since they peaked in late 2021. Bitcoin, generally the most stable of all is down 68% from its peak!

There isn’t a market index to judge a crypto bear market but here is how much some popular coins have dropped from their peaks:

  • Bitcoin – 68%
  • Ethereum – 75%
  • Dogecoin – 80%
  • Luna – 100%

I have my crypto assets at Gemini which fortunately has been one of the safer platforms. That said, I’m still spooked by the possibility of their failure causing me to lose my money.

Focusing on what I can control in this situation, I’ve purchased a Trezor Model One hardware wallet. This allows me to transfer our crypto off of Gemini and hold it in cold storage. In plain English, it means that our crypto is in our possession and nothing happens to it if Gemini were to go bankrupt. They have no ownership of the asset.

Trezor Model One Hardware Wallet

With such a risk hanging out there, why did it take myself and so many others so long to consider becoming their own crypto custodian?

  1. Having a “hot wallet” on an exchange is just easier.
  2. There’s a lot more responsibility, complication and different risks in self custody.
  3. The risk of crypto companies freezing withdrawals and you possibly losing your assets is hard to gauge. Many assumed that it was a low probability risk.

Having now setup my own hardware wallet I can confirm that this NOT for the everyday person. There are so many ways that you can screw this up and lose your crypto. Long wallet addresses that must be correct, recovery seed words that must not be lost and nobody to help you if you mess it up.

Recession Worries

A bear market is one thing, but a recession is a separate concern. A recession is when the country gross domestic product (GDP) decreases for two consecutive quarters. GDP being the value of the goods and services produced by the country over a quarter.

US GDP went down by 1.5% in Q1 2022. If it goes down in Q2 then we will be considered in a recession. Because we only know about it after the fact, a recession is a lagging indicator.

Why Is This Happening?

Inflation is increasing and to combat that the Fed is increasing interest rates. Inflation is making costs go up and interest rates going up makes it more expensive for businesses to borrow money. Additionally, low unemployment means wages are increasing further squeezing businesses that compete for talent.

This usually results in companies tightening their belts with layoffs or bad businesses going bankrupt. Even popular companies like Tesla are beginning to lay off staff in areas where they grew too quickly.

Should You Be Worried?

Talking about recession may give you flashbacks to 2008 if you’re at least 35 years old. Should you be worried about a recession and the possibility of you losing your job?

Maybe, but this recession will be a little different. Right now we’re still at record low unemployment of 3.6%. While that will likely go up, there is no massive housing bubble or financial crisis to go along with it.

I think everyone need to determine their own personal level of risk based on their jobs, businesses and income streams. Anytime there is a slowdown the companies in worse financial shape including new ones are the most vulnerable. As are usually businesses that rely on more discretionary spending.

What Am I Doing?

I’ve been fortunate throughout my career to have a fairly safe job in the defense industry. I’m not a middle manager with a higher salary so I do feel a little more vulnerable. However, like other companies I know we’re struggling to hire people to fill our gaps AND retain the people that we have.

I do feel fairly safe but there are some actions that I’m taking to set myself for success if I were to get laid off.

  1. Increasing our liquid emergency fund – We have a decent ~8 month EF not including unemployment if I were to lose my job. However, cash is king when you lose your income. If there’s no job loss then we’ll invest it as a lump sum.
  2. Making your value known at work – The best employees that contribute most to the revenue and success of the company are the ones most likely to be laid off last. Be valuable and you’ll reduce the risk of getting the ax.
  3. Updating my resume – It never hurts to have that up to date so that you aren’t scrambling to do that after an emotional layoff.
  4. Working on a side hustle – ManagingFI financial coaching! Yes, I’m taking my knowledge and using it to help others achieve their financial goals. Interested in being a client? Contact me at contact@managingFI.com and tell me what you need help with.

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Investing

How Risky Are Stablecoins? 5 Risks To Consider

BLUF: Stablecoins are attractive for their high interest rates and greater price stability but they aren’t risk free. It’s important to understand the risks before you decide how much to invest.

I actually started writing this article 3 months ago in mid-February. I had personally been on a journey of exploring the crypto space which including building up 1% of our portfolio across Bitcoin, Ethereum and the GUSD stablecoin.

At the end of 2021 I did a classic rookie mistake of letting FOMO (fear of missing out) drive me faster into an investment that I didn’t fully understand. Buying Bitcoin and Ethereum with new investment money was an okay decision. However, at the time I also moved our entire travel fund and part of our emergency fund into GUSD – the Gemini stablecoin.

This article is going to go into the details of stablecoins, yes. But the discussion about understanding and assessing the risks is more broadly applicable to more than just stablecoins. Assessing risks and then making decisions is a lifelong practice that can have large impacts on our lives.

I’m not here trying to scare you, but rather educate you. Investing is about taking on the right amount of risk based on your goals, plan and personality. Lets get into what stablecoins are and what risks exist when investing in them.

What is a stablecoin?

They’re a cryptocurrency that’s pegged 1:1 against another asset. Most commonly this is pegged against a FIAT currency like the USD.

An example of Gemini’s Dollar (GUSD), the stablecoin that I hold, in relation to the US dollar. Because the scale is so tight it seems volatile but the price most of the time is 1.00 +/- 1 cent.

Three Main Types Of Stablecoins

There are three main types of stable coins listed in order of most to least stable.

  • Fiat-backed – stablecoins that hold reserves of the currency that it’s pegged to in order to back it.
  • Crypto-backed – stablecoins that is backed (also called collateralized) by cryptocurrencies that are held in reserved.
  • Algorithmic – These use algorithms the regulate supply and demand in order to maintain the peg. They’re usually two or more token systems where one taken is a stablecoin and the second tokens price can freely fluctuate in the market.

Here’s a list of some popular stablecoins.

Stablecoin (Symbol) – Type

  • Tether (USDT) – Fiat-backed
  • Gemini USD (GUSD) – Fiat-backed
  • Circle US Coin (USDC) – Fiat-backed
  • Dai (DAI) – Crypto-backed
  • Terra USD (UST) – Algorithmic

How Does A Stablecoin Maintain Its Peg?

In a word – trust. All the biggest stablecoins are collateralized which means that they’re back by assets. Investors buy stablecoins with the understanding that their money will be used to purchase other reliable assets like US treasuries, money market funds or short term bonds. That gives them confidence that when they want to exchange those stablecoins back to FIAT currency, they’ll be able to do it.

The algorithmic stablecoins are either partially collateralized with another crypto token or non-collateralized. In theory these work by the algorithm acting like a central bank. It holds the peg by minting more coins when there’s high buying pressure to keep the price from rising. Burns coins when there’s a lot of selling pressure to keep the price from falling.

These are quite complicated and so far have not proven to hold up during volatile situations. The most recent implosion was the token Luna which worked in conjunction with Terra UST to maintain that stablecoin. UST couldn’t maintain its peg and Luna went into a death spiral in May 2022 trying to keep the peg. It never recovered.

Terra LUNA – The token associated with UST. From $80/coin to $.00025 in less than a week. Ouch

What Is The Utility Of Stablecoin?

Being stable!

In the cryto space, price volatility is the norm. Here’s an example of price volatility for Bitcoin, the largest coin in the world. This is over a WEEK. 5-10% changes in price over a day are not unusual.

Price volatility is okay for an investment that you plan to hold, but not money where price stability is desired. Here are a few situations where stablecoins prove to be a useful tool

A Tool To Combat Unstable FIAT Currencies

In the US we take for granted that the US dollar is so stable in value. A dollar in your Friday paycheck isn’t going to change in value by the time you go to the grocery store on Sunday. This isn’t the case in other countries. Venezuela’s hyperinflation was so bad that some stores removed price labels since the price was changing daily from the currency being devalued.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/inflation-rate-by-country

In countries with unstable currencies, stablecoins are one way for people to move their unstable FIAT currency into something that isn’t impacted by inflation like their native currency. It’s also a way to cheaply send money to relatives in other countries.

Providing Liquidity In Crypto Markets

Provides liquidity to crypto markets. If you look at the 24 hour trading volume, stablecoins dominate the market with Tether easily number #1. That should not be surprising since it also dominates in the circulating supply with $78B Tether coins out there.

If you look at the most popular coin in marketcap and volume, Bitcoin, you can see the most popular trading pairs and their volume. Stablecoins, and more specifically Tether, are the highest volume trading pairs with Bitcoin.

The Rewards

Before getting into risks, lets acknowledge why stablecoins are getting so much attention. High interest rates! And when I say high, I mean astronomical compared to anything resembling a bank account. Here’s an example of some of the highest rates being touted.

Greed drives a lot of human behavior and it’s hard to ignore something offering such high returns compared with the < 1% that most HYSA and CD’s are offering in May of 2022. We may not know much about how they can offer such good returns but our minds can justify a lot when there’s money to be made.

And this is the allure of stablecoins. You’ve found the nirvana of investing: high returns with low risk. Or have you?

The Difficulty In Assessing Risk

I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but like most things in investing and life, there is no free lunch. There’s no such thing high returns with low risk. You see, if there was, everyone would do it and the returns would drop. What I see is the “stable” term being misinterpreted.

Stablecoins are only price stable. Price stability is being mistaken by many to mean “safe” and “low risk.”

In my world of project management, there are two components to assessing a risk: the probability of the risk occurring and the magnitude of the impact if the risk occurs. We want to avoid or mitigate risks that are both high probability and high impact.

For example, building a house in a common flood zone. There’s a high probability of the flooding happening because there’s an established history of it based on the land. If the flooding does happen there’s a high impact in that the financial cost to repair or replace the house is great. That’s why flood insurance can be very expensive if you live in a flood zone.

That’s great to understand about risk, but that only helps if you can accurately assess the probability AND impact of a risk. With a company that often comes down to the reputation of the people running it, what they tell us and the information that they publish.

Bernie Madoff was a legitimate, trusted wall street businessman for years before he started his ponzi scheme that tricked so many. Many professional investors were invested in Madoff for years without realizing it was a fraud.

Enron was formed from two legitimate energy companies that existed for decades. Then internally some bad actors started committing accounting fraud over many years imploding the company surprising many. That fraud also flew under the radar for many years despite being a public company with required quarterly accounting reports.

I’m not trying to say that stablecoins are fraudulent. I’m trying to say that it can be very hard to assess the risk of things that look like they’re working well on the outside. Some investments can very abruptly flip from the “all is well” state to losing a lot of money.

5 Risks Of Investing In Stablecoins

Given that backdrop of information on stablecoins and risk, lets talk about 5 risks that exist in the use of stablecoins.

Stablecoins Losing Their Peg

One incorrect risk assessment is perceiving a stablecoin held on a crypto exchange with a similar level of stability, safety and trust as a savings account held at a bank. After all, its stable!

However, stability is the goal, not the guarantee. We certainly saw that with the stablecoin UST (now called USTC) losing it’s $1.00 peg. It now trades for $0.02 on the dollar so you’ve lost 98% of your stablecoin investment.

As much as our brains want to think of stablecoins as cash with a set value, they’re investments. There are risks being taken behind the scenes with the money that you use to buy stablecoins in order to provide the high published interest rates.

The systems that are in place to maintain that peg are not perfect and many have never been stressed to see how hey will hold up. Algorithmic stablecoins like UST so far have proved to be the highest risk to failing. And when it happens, it’s ugly.

No Insurance Against Loss (FDIC / SIPC)

Cash held in a regulated bank gets FDIC insurance to protect a depositor for up to $250,000 in the event that the bank goes out of business. The federal government provides that backstop to avoid bank runs that happen when people lose faith in a bank and fear that they won’t be able to get their money back.

Investments held in a financial institution that is an SIPC member company are protected in the event that the company declares bankruptcy. It protects up to $500,000 in investments including up to $250,000 in cash.

Two more recent examples of this was the Lehman Brother bankruptcy in 2008 and the Madoff Ponzi scheme. Because both of these were SIPC member institutions the SIPC stepped in and was able to help protect investor accounts and try to make them whole.

Source: SIPC History
Source: SIPC History

It’s important to recognize that SIPC does NOT insure you against the loss of capital because your investments decrease in value. It’s only against bankruptcy of the member company.

At the time of writing there aren’t any crypto only exchanges that are SIPC insured. Gemini, for example, has FDIC insurance on cash it holds but no SIPC insurance. And they are one of the standout companies in the space in my opinion when it comes to being reputable and lower risk.

Counterparty Risk – The Stablecoin Company

It’s important to recognize that all these stablecoins are issued by private companies. The companies created this “currency” and for that currency to have value and exist, the company that created the stablecoin needs to be able to take those stablecoins back at any time and give you back FIAT currency in exchange.

Counterparty risk is the risk that the other party in a transaction or investment isn’t able to hold up their end of the deal. In the case of the stablecoin this could mean maintain the peg as previously discussed. It could mean that they can’t hand you back a dollar in exchange for each stablecoin that you have.

It’s easy to think of a stablecoin like any other currency. However, there’s a big difference between having the full economy of the US government standing behind the US dollar versus the having Tether Ltd. standing behind their Tether stablecoin USDT.

Tether Ltd. is a private company that has issued $72.5B (billion!) in stablecoins. That’s a lot of money and responsibility. Being an asset backed stablecoin they need to responsibly manage that money to ensure that it’s available for redemption when people want it.

Per their website this is how those reserves are held. Looks like a vast majority of it is held in very safe, secure investments like cash and US treasury bills

Commercial paper makes up a healthy percentage as well. Commercial paper is unsecured, short term debt that typically earns very little interest. 0.36% is the February 2022 interest rate for 3 month, AA rated commercial paper. If you buy up commercial paper from higher risk (lower rated) companies you’ll make a higher return but have a higher risk of default.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/3_month_aa_financial_commercial_paper_rate

However, it is important to recognize that this is all “self reported” information. There have been attestations done but no true audits. Or, as they call them “assurance opinions”. In other words, nobody has gone through and looked at all the accounts where Tether says that these reserves are held in to verify that everything is as they say it is.

I’m not saying that there’s a problem here, but the fact that they’ve never been audited and refuse to be properly audited is a red flag to me. Being that they are the #3 most valuable crypto asset in the world I sure hope that they are properly managing this reserve money.

That’s the counterparty risk that you accept with Tether. If any kind of fraud or mismanagement did occur and they couldn’t redeem your USDT for FIAT currency then the stablecoin would plummet in value.

Regulatory risk

The cryptocurrency industry is very much in it’s infancy. It has gotten so big, so quickly that it’s just starting to get more attention from governments. With so much economic money becoming intertwined with crypto, the risk goes up of a crypto collapse impacting businesses and countries goes up. Nobody wants a financial crisis like 2008 again.

In response, some governments like China have banned cryptocurrency. In the US, the SEC is looking at crypto companies much more closely and handing out fines if they aren’t complying with the rules. The SEC fined BlockFI $100M because of violations.

The point is that regulation is coming and that’s a good thing. It will help to keep peoples money safe by increasing company transparency and holding them to risk management standards. However, regulation could force some companies out of business due to fines or being unable to comply.

By chance I end up with Gemini because New York has very tough compliance rules and Coinbase was the only other option. However, in hindsight, I’m happy about that because I think the probability is lower that Gemini could do something shady and get away with it.

Hacking Risk

Police: Why do you rob banks?

Willie: Because that’s where the money is.

Willie Sutton, bank robber

One downside with the crypto space is that its really a hackers dream. No more dealing with malware and trying to extort money from people to get their data back. With crypto, there are a hundred different “banks” full of crypto from which they can steal directly.

I had someone who was able to log into my Gemini account in the middle of the night and the only thing that saved me was the I had two factor authentication turned on. Fortunately they weren’t smart enough to get around that. However, people can even spoof phones now to bypass that.

There are so many startup crypto exchanges and projects that there is money floating everywhere in cyber space. These smaller companies don’t have the budgets to secure your account like more established companies. If you crypto is stolen you’re often out of luck.

If you counter this risk by holding your assets off the exchanges in a cold wallet then there’s the risk of a seed phrase being lost and the crypto not being recoverable. This article from last year estimated that 20% of all bitcoin seems to be lost or stuck in hardware wallets.

What Am I Doing?

In February 2022 I reversed course and pulled most of that emergency fund money and all of the travel fund back out and into our HYSA. I decided that I was most comfortable with treating stablecoins as an investment and only putting what I was willing to lose in them.

I do feel more confident with my money held in Gemini. However, it’s going to take more time and some more regulation in the industry for me to be comfortable putting money that I can’t lose into them.

I keep a modest crypto portfolio of 1% of my total portfolio. Of that, it’s roughly 55% bitcoin, 25% Ethereum, 20% GUSD stablecoins.

Are Stablecoins Worth The Risk?

Like all investment decisions, that’s really up to you to decide based on your situation, risk tolerance and what you can afford to use. I think they’re an interesting investment option and can be one of the less risky options in the crypto space.

However, personally, I wouldn’t park large sums of cash that you can’t afford to lose. My opinion could certainly change over time as the industry matures but it’s still the wild wild west out there in many areas.

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